Egypt, Gaza, and Israel: The wasted historic opportunity

After October 7, Egypt significantly increased its military presence along the border, beyond anything it had done before. This move stemmed from its fear that Israel would exploit the situation to depopulate the Strip of its hostile population. In our research, we have demonstrated how, since 1948, Egypt has developed a clear national interest in preserving Gaza as a Palestinian-Islamist colonial outpost—an interest that has manifested in multiple wars and in its strategy for managing internal opposition. It seems that these motives have escaped Israeli decision-makers, despite the 47 years that have passed since the euphoria of peace.

Following the events of October 7, Israel was faced with a historic opportunity to alter the demographic and geographical reality of Gaza. However, as the feasibility of evacuating the Strip increased, so did Egypt’s military buildup along the border, reaching unprecedented levels. While Egypt had no qualms for 80 years about turning Gaza into a massive weapons depot (except, perhaps, between 1979 and 1988), Israel has been deterred from taking action to change the situation for the past 50 years.

From Egypt’s perspective, the military buildup along the border is part of a comprehensive doctrine—the more tangible the possibility of evacuating Gaza became, the more aggressive Egypt became, both diplomatically and militarily. All of this stems from its fear (which is ultimately unfounded, considering that the Israeli government is reluctant to take any significant step to change the demographic reality) that such a move might dismantle the human-rocket-jihadist weapons depot that Egypt began fostering in the early 1990s.

A brave and patriotic leadership in Israel would have exposed Egypt’s motives and its efforts to perpetuate the situation while acting decisively to neutralize the military buildup along the border and in the Sinai Peninsula. Instead, Israel remains a passive observer while Egypt rebuilds its influence.

Egypt’s interest in arming and strengthening Gaza to wear down Israel, suppress internal opposition, and maintain influence over Israeli politics—is now being validated not just historically but also in real-time. While the U.S. is trying to neutralize the threatening factor, Egypt is instead rallying Arab states to push forward the $53 billion reconstruction plan for Gaza—all while tripling its forces along the border.

Egypt's military and diplomatic actions are escalating in parallel with its fear that Israel may indeed act to change the situation. This fact proves that the "side cargo theory" is not merely a historical explanation—it is an accurate description of the current political reality.

Until Trump spoke about the issue, it was difficult to see just how accurate this theory was. Now, as Egypt finds itself under pressure and struggling to shake it off, Israel has become its lifeline—through inaction, passivity, and chronic hesitation. Egypt is in a diplomatic bind due to American pressure, yet instead of seizing the opportunity, the Israeli leadership allows Egypt to emerge from the crisis stronger, even presenting the U.S. administration with a level of resilience and flexibility that Israel itself cannot demonstrate—even when it is not being cornered, let alone when it is.

On one hand, Egypt’s military vector deters Israel; on the other hand, Egypt’s diplomatic vector is far more proactive than Israel’s, despite Israel enjoying American backing, while Egypt has, at most, Saudi and Qatari support.

The question of why Egypt is taking advantage of this moment while Israel is not—why Egypt’s president is acting to protect his interests while Israel’s leadership freezes any meaningful initiative—is a question for future historians to answer. But it is abundantly clear that the problem does not lie solely with Egypt. The demographic and geographical landscape of the Middle East momentarily tilted in an unprecedented historic direction, yet Israel, in an act of historical laziness unparalleled in scope, chose to squander the opportunity.

Just as Egypt has a vested interest in ensuring that Gaza remains under its influence, Israel seems equally indifferent to leaving Gaza as a persistent and unsolved problem.