Zelensky’s fatal mistake: How the actor handed Putin the upper hand

As I explained in my previous article, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unjust and criminal, the reality is that without launching an all-out war against Russia, there seems to be no viable way to push Russian forces back.

Given this reality, a crucial question arises: Is it worth sacrificing more lives just to reclaim territory and expel the Russians—assuming that is even possible? Furthermore, if Russian forces were indeed forced to retreat, would they truly accept defeat, as they did in Afghanistan, or would they escalate the conflict further—especially since this war is being fought on their border, in regions inhabited by native Russians, making it fundamentally different from Afghanistan?

If the answer to either of these questions is "no," then the world risks triggering an even more violent conflict—one that some argue is surprisingly yet to erupt.

While a Democratic U.S. administration might have initially welcomed such a confrontation, the current administration is unprepared for it.

When President Trump says he wants to save lives, some claim he is advocating for "surrender" to Russia's aggression and enabling it to continue violating the so-called "rules-based order." That is incorrect. Trump is not surrendering to Russia—he understands a deeper truth: stopping the war now does not guarantee that it won’t restart in the future, just as continuing the war does not guarantee Russia’s defeat—as long as the Russian state exists.

Thus, given that neither option guarantees an end to the conflict, and given that a negotiated ceasefire could reduce the chances of war resuming, while Ukraine's NATO membership remains unfeasible, Trump proposed the minerals and natural resources deal as a first step toward de-escalation.

Some argue this plan is naïve. These critics refuse to accept that Ukraine is part of the Slavic sphere of influence. They claim Ukraine has the right to do whatever it wants—these people live in a delusion that nuclear powers with UN veto powers are normal state-actors. And these people are extremely dangerous in their foolishness - regardless of the unjust nature of this war, or the attempt of some to minimize the breaches made either by Ukraine (Breaking the Minsk agreement) or by Russia (commiting a full scale invasion).

These people be them American or European, fail to realize that if Russia is allowed to wake up to Ukraine becoming a NATO base, the U.S. will wake up to Mexico or Canada becoming a Chinese base—and as 1962 has reminded us - we do not want to live in such a world.

Zelensky’s Mistake and the Missed Opportunity

I do not expect Zelensky to acknowledge or accept these difficult realities. However, his miscalculation—though somewhat understandable given the immense pressure of three years of war—was his outright refusal to even engage in discussions about a ceasefire at the White House yesterday. Moreover, he dismissed the natural gas and minerals deal for what it is - a potential first step toward securing U.S. guarantees for Ukraine’s future stability.

Instead of seizing an opportunity for dialogue, he positioned himself as an obstacle to peace, prioritizing his rejection of ending the war while showing disregard for both the U.S. President and Vice President.

Trump interpreted this as a refusal to move toward the next steps after the resource deal, which were:

1. A ceasefire

2. A permanent settlement

As a result, Trump is now going to demand that Ukraine accept all these steps either in one move or through a conditional, step-by-step process from A to Z in one sweep.

At the same time, this weakened the U.S. and Ukrainian bargaining position against Russia, creating a rift between America and Ukraine and strengthening Russia’s leverage in negotiations.

Now, Russia may try to appeal to Trump by maintaining its original demands and avoiding any aggressive exploitation of the temporary U.S.-Ukraine divide in order to present itself as reasonable.

If this happens, Trump will likely view it as a goodwill gesture and respond accordingly—ultimately leaving Zelensky at an even greater disadvantage.

Zelensky Has No Real Endgame

Ukraine’s long-term strategy is nonexistent. France, Britain, and Germany do not have military forces on par with Russia (perhaps combined, they could match it?), but even if they did, sending their troops to Ukraine would expose their home fronts to Russian strikes, and will also bring down their governments - for it will be deemed very unpopular.

In truth, the U.S. is the only country strong and far enough (outside Alaska) from Russia's population centers to offer such assistance without serious risk of attack.

On the other hand, while Russia has issued numerous threats over the past three years, it has acted on very few of them—many of which have been spearheaded by figures like Dmitry Medvedev.

When Trump says Ukraine lacks financial resources, he is correct—no European country can sustain the war machine that the U.S. built in Ukraine. If America withdraws, Europe will find itself in direct confrontation with Russia—which, at this point, some in the U.S. see as less dangerous than some of Europe’s own internal developments.

The reality is that aside from Zelensky, no one is willing to die for the land Russia has seized—territory that is already populated by ethnic Russians who speak Russian (East Ukraine).

Is It Fair? Is It Just?

No, it is neither fair nor just—but Russia has managed to hold its ground in this war, and that alone is why the West will be forced to pressure Ukraine into accepting reality. There is no Plan B that doesn’t result in more deaths. There is no Plan B that guarantees the war won’t continue.

The only realistic solution is a gradual plan that ensures Ukraine remains protected as long as a strong leader is in the White House. If the U.S. lacks a strong leader, then the ideals of freedom and democracy worldwide will no longer be secure—and it does not matter who is in the Kremlin.

This is not a good situation, but having in the U.S. a series of very un-American administrations, and in the EU a lot of anti-Russian sentiment leading to this point, did not help anybody.

However, we cannot ignore the fact that Ukraine has made mistakes along the way, such as:

Violating agreements signed with Germany, France, and Russia before 2022.

Allowing its territory to be used as a base for U.S. intelligence operations and biological weapons development

Declaring aspirations to join NATO despite Russian warnings

Additionally, we cannot ignore the expansion of the EU and NATO eastward, nor can we forget the West’s past military interventions, such as NATO’s actions in Yugoslavia, which still linger in the background of Russian decision-making.

The Trump mineral deal could have saved Ukraine. Ukraine must now ask itself: "Am I going to war with Europe against Russia, or making peace with the Americans?",

I am not sure Zelensky is the right person to ask these questions in the name of the Ukranians.