It All Depends On the Results

Benjamin Netanyahu's ceasefire: Here's why it's good(ish)

Israelis and their supporters are deeply divided on the wisdom of a ceasefire that seems to leave the job half-done. But there are good arguments why this deal isn't that bad.

Under fire for an unpopular ceasefire deal. (Photo: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

A lot of Israelis - in the north and throughout the country, Bibi voters and those who oppose him - are deeply dissatisfied with the ceasefire deal, and it's easy to understand why.

Hezbollah has been hurt, but they still have tens of thousands of soldiers and at least enough rockets to harass Israelis daily for a long time. The contours of the deal, which sound like the UN Resolution 1701 arrangement that failed so dismally the last time, sound like a recipe for disaster in the north.

But even setting aside the threats presented by the United States - to allow a Security Council resolution that's even worse or continue to delay arms shipments to Israel - there are serious reasons to feel good about the ceasefire deal, even if it's deeply imperfect.

First, the detachment of Lebanon from Gaza is a real achievement. Nasrallah insisted for a whole year that they would not stop firing on Israel until Israel ended the war in Gaza. Now, they stopped without getting that.

Forcing Hezbollah north of the Litani will be a heavy lift, but it's been a major article of faith for Israel since the war started in the north, and if it happens - or even happens mostly - this means the north is significantly safer than it was on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah was much better placed to invade the north in strength and armed to the teeth.

The failure to secure a commitment for a security buffer is a problem, but people who wanted more than that - say, an all-out war of destruction against Hezbollah a la the war in Gaza against Hamas - fail to realize that this would not only be far more costly, it would likely require something like the occupation (or at least the blockade) of the whole of Lebanon, with all the diplomatic and military headaches that would require.

Hezbollah needed to be badly wounded rather than killed this round. Maybe it should have been more badly wounded - with the IDF reporting the entire area south of the Litani cleared of enemy forces and weapons - but given the constraints put on it, Israel did well.

Israel is also now much freer to deploy more forces to hurt Hamas much harder in Gaza, and the more the different fronts can be defeated in detail, the better.

It's hard to predict how long this ceasefire will last. But it's also worth remembering the nightmare scenarios everyone predicted before Israel launched its ground invasion this time around - scenarios that did not come to pass.

Let us learn to hope and have courage, not just think of disaster.

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