Yesterday's extraordinary attack in Lebanon seems like something out of a science fiction movie. An almost simultaneous explosion of thousands of beeper devices causing about 4,000 injuries among Hezbollah operatives. It's a scenario that sounds almost surreal. This operation, which Hezbollah attributes to Israel, combines sophistication, precision, and lethality that creates a lot of embarrassment, to say the least, on the other side.
Reality, unfortunately, is even more complex than the movies. The implication of simultaneously injuring thousands of Hezbollah operatives is a declaration of war that Hezbollah can hardly ignore, as reported on Ynet.
This is what Avi Issacharoff, an Israeli journalist, known for his focus on Palestinian affairs and the co-creator of Fauda, wrote about the operation and its implications.
Issacharoff also said, "the meaning of a full-scale war against Israel is severe, even very severe. We're not talking about a small organization like Hamas (which proved how lethal it is almost a year ago), but an army with an arsenal of about 150,000 precision missiles and rockets, with diverse and lethal weaponry. A reality of widespread war against Hezbollah will cause many casualties in all areas of Israel, and the fighting will no longer be limited to the northern border. There will be enormous economic consequences, but also loss of life and impact on the ability to maintain proper education and health systems.
The question that the Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu will need to ask itself, and soon, is what is the purpose of such a war against Hezbollah? What are the achievable goals? Will it be possible to restore quiet to the northern border and distance Shiite organization operatives from the border?
This operation attributed to Israel will not lead Hezbollah to stop its offensive activity against northern settlements, but to escalation. The organization also does not intend to completely withdraw north of the Litani ... we are likely facing days, and perhaps even weeks of escalation, which may eventually force the IDF into ground action, and this while the IDF is still operating in the south.
[Although] Hezbollah's response may be delayed, it's clear that Hezbollah's response is a question of when, not if."
In an interview on Al Jazeera, geopolitical consultant Colonel Rich Outzen said that Israel's pager explosion attack may indicate ‘something big is going to happen.' He said, "For people who fear escalation into a regional conflict- it's already a regional conflict. Iran is pulling strings on a number of different groups: the Houthis in the Red Sea, Lebanese Hezbollah - there is absolutely coordination going on that is led by Tehran. So [the pager explosions are likely] a counter-escalation by Israel, who is saying, "We are not going to tolerate a long-term campaign especially when tens of thousands of our people are displaced from the North."
Outzen added that 2700 Hezbollah fighters who now have "mangled fingers, degraded vision and can't walk" could be Israel preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon and protecting itself from Hezbollah forces to prevent a recurrence of what happened in 2006. He also said that from a military standpoint, "this is the kind of thing you would expect to see before a larger operation. I would not think it's a one-off. It's either a counter-escalation or perhaps an indicator bigger things to come."