In the wake of Ismail Haniyeh's shocking death in Tehran, Sinwar, dubbed as "the Butcher of Khan Yunis," declared that the new leader must be someone close to Iran. By doing so, he effectively coronated himself.
Hamas and Iran's relationship has been a rollercoaster of realpolitik. Once at odds over the Arab Spring—with Hamas backing the uprisings and Iran supporting Syria's Assad—they've since found common ground in their hatred of Israel.
Enter Sinwar, the prison-hardened strategist who saw in Iran not just an ally, but a lifeline. Freed in 2011 after two decades in Israeli prisons, he emerged with a single-minded focus: rebuild Hamas's relationship with Iran. While others in Hamas looked to Turkey and Qatar, Sinwar set his sights on Tehran.
Here's where it gets interesting. Despite Sinwar's Iranian gambit, Tehran and its proxy Hezbollah didn't join the fray after October 7 as he had hoped. It was a miscalculation that left Hamas fighting alone—and Sinwar presumably seething.
Strangely, this setback seems to have only strengthened Sinwar's resolve. His message to fellow militants invoked the Battle of Karbala, a seminal event in Shia Islam, in a clear nod to his Iranian backers.
With Sinwar at the helm, the Middle East has been upended.
U.S. efforts for a cease-fire now face a formidable obstacle in this hard-line leader. Israel, already on edge, has placed Sinwar at the top of its hit list—a designation that could complicate any potential negotiations.
In the words of Ghassan Khatib, a lecturer at Birzeit University, "We don't know how this war is going to end. We don't know if they are going to survive."
As Sinwar steps into the spotlight, the world watches with bated breath, wondering what this puppet master's next move will be—and who's really pulling the strings.
* The Wall Street Journal contributed to this account.