A recently disclosed arms deal between Iran and Armenia has sent shockwaves through the Middle East and Caucasus region, raising concerns about growing antisemitism and the potential for increased regional instability.
Although the deal was reported by the Islamic Republic's opposition television channel Iran International, Armenia (and Iran's ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani) denies it.
The agreement, reportedly worth $500 million, includes the provision of suicide drones, cruise missiles, and air defense systems to Armenia. More alarmingly, it appears to involve intelligence cooperation and the establishment of Iranian bases on Armenian soil, according to a report by the London-based Persian-language opposition TV channel, Iran International.
The deal comes at a time of heightened tensions in the region, with Armenia recently recognizing a Palestinian state and condemning violence against civilians in Gaza. These moves have strained relations with Israel, prompting the Israeli Foreign Ministry to summon the Armenian ambassador for a reprimand.
For the small Jewish community in Armenia, the arms deal has exacerbated existing fears. The country's only synagogue in Yerevan has been the target of arson attacks four times in the past year, and there have been reports of public neo-Nazi parades.
"Antisemitism in Armenia is fueled by accusations that Israel has provided Azerbaijan with weapons used against Armenia in their conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh," said Rabbi Zamir Isayev, president of the Sephardi-Georgian community in Azerbaijan. He expressed concern that the deal could turn Armenia into "another Iranian proxy, similar to Lebanon and the Houthis."
However, some experts caution against drawing direct links between the arms deal and incidents of antisemitism. Dr. Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, stated in a phone interview, "While the concerns of the Jewish community are valid, it's crucial to understand the complex geopolitical factors driving Armenia's decisions. The country is navigating a delicate balance between regional powers."
The arms deal also has implications beyond the immediate region. Jonatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggests that the agreement "enables Iran to counter Israel's relationship with Azerbaijan," as Tehran's disdain for Israel extends to countries with ties to Jerusalem.
The United States, too, has reason for concern. A 2008 WikiLeaks disclosure suggested that Armenia had previously supplied Iran with weapons later used against American troops in Iraq. While these claims are over a decade old, they underscore the potential for arms deals in the region to have far-reaching consequences.
The situation is further complicated by Armenia's strategic position. Sandwiched between Turkey and Azerbaijan, both allies of Israel, Armenia has long sought to diversify its security partnerships. The Iran deal may be seen as a counterbalance to perceived threats from its neighbors.
As tensions rise, diplomatic efforts are underway to address the situation. The Israeli government's summoning of the Armenian ambassador signals a desire for dialogue, even as it expresses its deep concerns.