Hezbollah has over 150,000 rockets in its arsenal of differing types, all aimed in Israel. The good news is many if not most of these are very inaccurate and vulnerable to air strikes, and their use could actually be more dangerous to Hezbollah and its patron Iran than the threat of their use.
The possibility that Hezbollah might fully enter the war beyond local provocations, complete with full-scale fighting on the ground and especially the unleashing of its formidable arsenal of rockets and missiles on Israeli targets, is on the mind of everyone watching the war in Gaza right now.
But just how dangerous is Hezbollah’s arsenal? Is it really such a game-changer? Or are there weaknesses we’re not noticing?
The Israeli paper Calcalist’s resident analyst of planes and missiles, Nitzan Sadan or “The Captain” as his column is called, provides a useful technical breakdown and discussion of this arsenal, one which gives reason for cautious optimism or at least not panic when coping with this threat.
Here’s the gist of his analysis:
Hezbollah's Rockets: Plentiful, but Inaccurate and Very Vulnerable
Hezbollah has over 150,000 rockets of various types in its arsenal. They were brought in by land via Syria or by sea via Lebanese ports, and sometimes they “accidentally” blow up en route.
More than half of this arsenal is made up of Grad-style 122 mm rockets with a range of 20-40 km and very low accuracy. Their main purpose is the terrorizing factor of terrorism more than actually hitting anything.
These are followed by Fajr-5 rockets created by Iran – fired already now by Hamas from Gaza – with a range of 75 kilometers, and Khaibar-1 rockets with a range of 100 km. To this we can add Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 rockets, with a range of up to 210 km and capable of carrying a warhead of up to 600 kilograms. Finally, there is the GPS-guided Fateh-110 ballistic missile, which is guided but cannot maneuver or change course.
In addition to their ability to cause damage and kill people, the main concern voiced by experts is that the arsenal will overwhelm Israel’s anti-missile defenses. So what are the weaknesses Hezbollah needs to worry about when firing them?
Sadan notes that the heavier the rocket, the more launchers it will need, requiring the exposure of difficult to replace launchers which can and probably will immediately be detected and destroyed by the Israeli Air Force once they are used.
Not every kind of rocket, especially the better ones, can be buried in small pits and fired from there like Hamas does with many of its rockets – many and maybe most of them are hidden in and launched from vehicles with civilian markings and other, physically fixed locations that are far more vulnerable to air strikes. Thus, every decision to launch missiles or rockets means losing vital launchers for those missiles and rockets.
The Threat of Rockets is More Beneficial Than Their Use - for Hezbollah and Iran
The flight of tens of thousands of Lebanese from the border since the war began also means that Hezbollah can rely a lot less on using civilians as human shields as Hamas has if and when it decides to fully enter the war. In addition, launching a war means potentially weakening Hezbollah’s standing as the most powerful militia in a country full of them, many of whom don’t care much for the Shiite army in the south.
No less importantly, launching the arsenal would remove a card Iran has to play to deter Israel from acting against its nuclear program – a gun, or rocket arsenal, once fired cannot be fired twice. As Sadan puts it: Hezbollah knows it’s better to threaten firing 150,000 rockets than to actually fire them.
As for the question of the arsenal overwhelming Israel’s defense systems, Sadan argues that the evacuation of citizens from the easy strike range of Hezbollah’s arsenal, combined with the elaborate system of secure rooms to protect from shrapnel (the main danger from rockets) and the Israeli Air Force’s ability to rapidly degrade launch capabilities will take much of the sting out of this threat. This, in addition to the more dangerous missiles all being fairly simple to intercept if directed at key targets.
Sadan sums up by telling readers: Take care of yourselves, be aware (of alerts and sirens) – and we will win.