Over the last 24 hours, a deal including a cease fire and a return of some of the hostages seems to be percolating into something serious. Reports differ on some of the details, but almost all refer to the above mentioned elements.
According to reports, the emerging deal involves the release of three terrorists for every hostage, though it is not yet known whether Hamas will free all 50 hostages at once, or ten at a time.
A defense source says that the first stage of the agreement is expected to go on for five days, with Hams freeing 10 live hostages a day from among the children and women it is holding. In exchange, Israel will free three women and children terrorists it is holding in prison, on condition they have no blood on their hands, according to journalist Ariel Cahana.
Israel is also preparing for a second stage to the agreement which extends it beyond the first five days, allowing the Hamas to free 10 hostages a day for three prisoners per hostage beyond the initial deal.
According to the defense source, the arrangement will last ten days at most, during which no more than 100 hostages will be freed. The Israeli side is fully aware of the many dangers involved in the deal, and there is a fear that Hamas will violate the cease fire, as it has done many times in the past.
Israel is also considering the possibility that Sinwar will not release the promised number of hostages, putting the political and military leadership in a bind. The source said that “We are definitely aware of the man’s character and we will respond in accordance with developments, even during the days of the cease fire. If he engages in nonsense, we will know to use the kinetic and other tools at our disposal to remind him of the deal’s conditions. We are also aware that we face far from simple days internally in Israel if the deal fails or is stopped midway.”
Hamas claims among other things that they are presently out of contact with all the hostages and a ceasefire would allow them to reestablish the same, releasing more hostages in their possession. Israel questions this, but in order to fully exhaust the possibility to bringing the hostages home, they are willing to extend the cease fire beyond the initial five days.
The source said that everything he says reflects the views of the entire war cabinet. Talks with a number of Israeli sources shows that the agreement will be put before the war cabinet and then the entire government for approval within the next 48 hours.
In light of the complexity and fears that Hamas will not meet conditions, the war cabinet will reassess whether to continue the ceasefire. The political leadership is well aware that Hamas is interested in extorting Israel and gaining time with the ceasefire.